Denmark-based insurer Topdanmark has posted a gain of DKK268m ($45.4m) for the first quarter, up from DKK35m in the same period last year. The result was ahead of an analyst consensus, apparently because Denmark, or, at least, Topdanmark, was not hit quite as severely by weather-related claims this past winter as was its neighbour Sweden. "Both the level of winter-related claims was lower and the investment return higher than assumed", the insurer said. However, the weather impact was still significant. The technical result was a loss of DKK32m compared with a gain of DKK233m in the same period last year. The combined ratio rose to 102.8% from 91.4%. There was a return to normality in the fire claims sector, down to DKK158m in Q1 2010, from DKK250m in the first quarter of last year. But this was of no help to Topdanmark's bottom line, because the fall-off was in the area of exceptionally high claims, while the trend in the Personal Lines fire claims sector was up. This meant that reimbursement from reinsurers fell year on year, and the total claims burden rose 1.9pp. The non-life gain rose from DKK80m to DKK199m, while the gain in life rose to DKK144m from DKK13m. Part of the improvement in the life sector was because Topdanmark can now include as income an allowance for risk in both of Topdanmark's Life operations, Life I and Life V. A fall in non-life premium income by 3.5% to DKK2.09bn was attributed mainly to a DKK58m fall in workers' comp premium income. Topdanmark said that the overall decline reflected the company's greater than average share of the small- to medium-sized enterprise market, which was disproportionately affected by the recession. Total earned premiums, including Life, were DKK3.08bn, down from DKK3.14bn. The improvement in Topdanmark's bottom line was solely the result of a turnaround in its investment performance, which swung to a gain of DKK230m from a loss of DKK153m in Q1 2009. For FY 2010, Topdanmark is predicting a combined ratio in the range of 94% to 95%, and a post-tax gain of between DKK950m and DKK1.05bn. This compares with a previous forecast combined ratio of 95% to 96%, and a previous forecast of a gain of DKK800m to DKK900m. However, total premium growth was reduced to zero, from a previous estimated growth of 1% to 2%. In a later telephone interview reported by Reuters, CEO Christian Saglid said that he expected the Danish economic crisis to bottom out in 2010, and that he anticipated premium growth in the second half compared with H1. Underlying profitability was now close to target, he said, and Topdanmark would now focus on top-line growth.